If you could drop Henry Ford into 2024, and give him a dollar to invest in EV stock, which company do you think the legendary motoring manufacturer would choose to back?
Tesla, did I hear you say? Well, I have hunch you may be wrong about that.
When Ford’s famous Model T arrived in1908, the entrepreneur had a simple vision for the vehicle – build it fast, sell it cheap.
The first Model T cost $825 but by 1925 that same model could be bought for just $260. And so, the “everyman car” revolutionised the then nascent motoring industry.
Which brings us to China’s new BYD Seagull.
Today’s cheapest Tesla, the Model 3, costs around £39,990. According to Autocar, the Seagull – a small four-seater EV, roughly the same size as a Fiat Panda – will “hit the market at the equivalent of just £7730 – around half the price of the UK’s cheapest petrol car.”
In Europe, BYD, its ambitious manufacturer, is already closing in fast on the amazing Mr Musk. According to Euronews, BYD “outsold Tesla in the last quarter of 2023 and has ambitions to be the biggest electric car manufacturer in Europe by 2030.”
Clearly aware of the dangers of being undercut on price in the mass EV market, Tesla have made plans. Reuters say the company “has told suppliers it wants to start production of a new mass-market electric vehicle codenamed "Redwood" in mid-2025.”
However, at a rumoured entry-level of $25,000 will the “Redwood” really be able to defend itself in the US and Europe from the likes of the Seagull?
Musk, as you’d expect, is confident. Telling The Guardian, “We’re very excited about this. This is going to be very profound not just in the design of the vehicle itself but also in the design of the manufacturing system.”
But later, in the same interview, commenting on Chinese EV automakers in general, he said, “I think they will have significant success outside of China depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established,” said Musk. “If there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most car companies in the world.”
"I will build a car for the great multitude,” said Henry Ford about his own vehicle. At $25,000, Musk’s “Redwood” can’t be that, can it? At £7730, BYD’s Seagull can be.
Ford was, more than anything else, the shrewdest of businessman. His EV dollar would, I’m certain, go into BYD stock. Sadly for Mr Musk, the Seagull might just be the new Model T.